New expert opinion looks at whether Europe’s energy supply will remain secure up to 2030

More renewables instead of conventional energy sources, an increasingly European electricity market and the phase-out of both nuclear energy and coal-fired power in Germany – a new expert opinion examines whether the new electricity mix can cover the electricity demand up to 2030.

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Germany is overhauling its energy supply, moving away from nuclear and fossil fuels and towards renewable energy, greater energy efficiency and the use of electricity for transport and heating. But will the electricity supply remain stable during this transformation? Compared to other countries, Germany's electricity supply is very reliable and secure. In order to make sure that this continues to be the case, the security of supply on the electricity market is continuously monitored – particularly against the background of the phase-out of nuclear energy and coal-fired power generation taking place in parallel.

Resource adequacy – Will Europe’s electricity supply remain secure up to 2030?

Apart from examining network and systems security – i.e. the secure operation of the grids – ‘resource adequacy’ is also being taken into account. A new study commissioned by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy has developed a number of different future scenarios to determine whether the supply of electricity on the European electricity markets will be sufficient to meet the demand at all times.

Based on the simulations used, the experts conclude that, for Germany, supply will be able to match demand for all the scenarios that have been examined up to 2030. This also applies for scenarios which project more ambitious climate action compared with the baseline scenario, including higher carbon prices and greater electricity consumption. The expert opinion modelled the effect of the mechanisms on the electricity markets up to 2030 and beyond. A document containing explanatory notes for the expert opinion can be found here.

Tighter climate targets – What will be the level of electricity consumption by 2030?

The tightened EU climate targets and the adjusted Federal Climate Change Act will also have a direct impact on electricity demand up to 2030. The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy has therefore commissioned a recalculation of electricity consumption in 2030 based on the adoption of the amended Federal Climate Change Act by the Bundestag and Bundesrat. The detailed analysis is to be available in autumn 2021. According to Initial estimates, electricity consumption will be between 645 and 665 TWh for the year 2030. The mean value of the forecast is 655 TWh and thus only slightly above the maximum value determined by the expert opinion.

“Monitoring resource adequacy on the European electricity markets“ will be the last project report on resource adequacy by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. At the beginning of 2021, the responsibility for monitoring security of supply was handed over to the Bundesnetzagentur. The next monitoring report on security of supply, which will be published by the Bundesnetzagentur by the end of October, will include, but not be limited to, resource adequacy.